Media
outlets love to highlight the next big
thing. Trend spotters love to say they know about it, and investment
bankers love to bet on it. As a twenty five year Silicon Valley veteran, I’m
always astonished on how often they miss what’s big. That’s probably why, when
the next big thing comes out, most of us are shocked since we think the technology
came out of nowhere.
Currently
the press is talking about drones, robots and smart watches. These technologies
are real, but are they the next big thing? Are they life changing? Not really. They
simply are prevalent and easy to understand.
The
next big thing isn’t the next big company; it’s the next big enabling technology
that will change our world. The next big new company will either provide that enabling
technology, or more realistically, provide a new product or service by riffing off or re-adapting
that technology. To understand the next big thing, it’s easiest to look at past
big things and investigate what really happened.
Twenty
years ago Netscape exploded onto the scene. Everyone outside of Silicon Valley
(and worldwide technologists) were blindsided and blown away by the internet. Those
of us working in the technology world all said, “What’s the big deal? We’ve
been using the internet for years.”
Netscape
capitalized on the simultaneous maturing of a number of technologies including
ubiquitous TCP/IP, low cost PC’s, color monitors, and especially graphical user
interfaces being applied to everything most importantly browsers and Windows,
which made it easy for people outside of technology to participate.
What
couldn’t be understood by Silicon Valley, or anyone else at that time, was how
the internet would change our lives. Life changed when technologists began riffing off these initial
technologies. Examples of companies that successfully riffed
off of the internet are Google, Amazon, and Facebook.
The
next big thing was the Smart Phone. For years everyone was saying, “why can’t we
combine the phone, camera, MP3 player, and PDA’s (e.g. iPod) into one device?”
It
took until 2007 for the technologies to mature so these applications could be
combined and a Smart Phone could be created. On launch, Apple didn’t allow non
Apple applications to run. It took “Jailbrakers” hackers, who broke into the
phone to run their own apps, to show Apple the real market.
Smart
phones were the enabling technology, but apps and the maturing of WiFi and low-cost
ubiquitous cloud servers allowed for new applications to riff off of mobile phones. The confluence of enabling
technologies really changed our lives. New companies that riff off of phones are Uber and Square.
Today,
the hottest hiring in Silicon Valley is for big data. The two most obvious
applications for big data are advertising and genetic sequencing. Companies have
established data farms full of data, but we don’t yet have the tools to
understand this information or take advantage of it.
Some
of the most progressive technology companies are skimming the surface of this
data potential to provide better information. But the information derived is mostly
regressive. For example, if a consumer views shoes in an online store,
advertisements for shoes will appear on screen when the same consumer surfs the
web — even if he or she bought the shoes.
Predictive
technologies are the current holy grail, but they are considerable more
difficult to develop. Highly progressive companies like Facebook are starting
to deploy predictive technologist. For example, based on your “Likes,” Facebook
can use big data to accurately predict your sex, age, political views, sexual
orientation, and a number of other metrics about you. All this predictive
information can be used to more accurately target advertising.
A
few “forward thinking” media writers have nominally identified big data as the
next big thing. And these writers have reported that engineers who work on
advertising applications are in big demand, and tend to get promoted into senior
level positions.
Their
conclusion: advertising is a hot field to be in. What they miss, however, is
the BIG BIG trend. Big data is the next big thing and people with any sort of big
data experience are highly sought after.
Of
course, the next question asked is: how will big data change our lives? That’s
why the media doesn’t cover the really big trends until they are upon us.
Currently,
we can say superficial things like, big data will provide better predictions
for what people want, and this will result in more accurately targeted display
adds. Or, improved health information can be provided since we can better spot health
trends. In areas like genomics, faster and cheaper sequencing will allow us to
create custom health solutions.
The
real answer is this: harnessing big data will change our lives. Not this year, and
not even next year — but soon. And it will change our lives in ways we can’t
imagine. That’s because the killer applications that will riff off of getting information out of big data
haven’t yet been conceived.
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